Dear Client,
/“People vote not out of love, but fear.”
-Philip Anthony Hopkins as Richard M. Nixon in “Nixon”
With the first Presidential debate having occurred this week, election season has officially arrived. Based on the client conversations we’re having, the upcoming election assumed the driver’s seat in voters’ minds weeks ago. Elections are important events that do have wide ranging implications, and therefore it is encouraging to us to hear how seriously you, our clients, are taking the decision. But we are a divided nation and few issues of significant impact appear open to compromise. This reality is what leads to the conversations we have been having with you, and the most frequently asked question of: “What happens if my candidate loses?”
Buttonwood Partners is officially apolitical. That is not because we don’t have opinions, or that we believe blindly agreeing with every client position makes good business sense. Believe me, we have fascinating, far-reaching and occasionally intense conversations within our office walls. We are apolitical because it is not our job to talk about who we like, or think will do a better job, or who we want to win. It is our job to be a good ship captain for your finances – to objectively assess the current situation, to pay attention to the forecast, to steer your portfolios towards calm waters, take advantage of a wind at our back whenever possible and, when necessary, to navigate safely through unavoidable storms.
This navigational duty remains our primary responsibility no matter who resides in the White House or which political party is in power. And it is a challenge we are determined to succeed at. In order to do that, we look at the data, continue to think long-term and adjust course as needed. The key phrase being “as needed,” for the captain who changes course too frequently typically pulls into harbor well behind the one with a steady hand. In the coming weeks and months, we will strive to remain that steady hand when it comes to charting your financial course.
This quarter’s featured article offers a perspective on past presidential elections and their impact on the market, while also sharing insights on the possible outcomes in 2020 and what the potential investment implications might be. Take a look and call us to discuss further.
As we reviewed the piece, we found it helpful to remind ourselves of the “looming storm clouds” that have gathered ahead of each of the elections we’ve experienced professionally. If we’re being honest, the conversations have followed a fairly similar pattern every four years for as long as we can remember (and certainly since I joined Buttonwood in 1997), with at least one side of the political aisle – if not both – predicting catastrophe if the other side won. As illustrated within the article, the long-term market impact of those fears tends to be much more muted than generally anticipated in the lead-up to the election.
Over the past 20 years we have experienced control by both political parties, tax increases and decreases, interest rates rising and falling, regulations becoming more restrictive as well as being eased. We have seen war, a housing crisis, the loss of the AAA-rating on our national debt and now a global pandemic. And yet the American economy has proven incredibly resilient, and the companies that make up the U.S. stock market have proven adept at adjusting to these ever-changing conditions. It is important not to lose sight of that fact during the runup to this current election cycle.
Whatever the outcome of the election, we know that we will face new challenges in the coming four years. There will be periods of strength as well as weakness in the stock market. But we remain confident that charting the proper course will find you docking safely at your destination...and on schedule.
While there are many issues that divide us, we hope one that can unite us is the importance of our democracy. Whether one votes Republican or Democrat, out of love or out of fear, it simply makes us happy when Americans participate in the process. Please take advantage of your opportunity to vote in 2020 – and in every election from here on out.
Stay Well,
Greg, Jodie and Chris